I was reading David Stuckler and Sanjay Basu’s book The Body Economic; in their chapter about Russia they describe how the end of communism and the ‘Shock Therapy’ of very rapid privatisation had vastly increased mortality there, by comparison to the US:
They illustrated this further:
And then compared this with the 5-year moving average (using selected data points) given in The Economist:
They commented, saying that The Economist had backed ‘Shock Therapy’, as did many economists; while these expected some minor, transient social and health pain, this isn’t what happened.
So, I was interested to see this Tweet from The Economist recently:
Depression and suicide often, but not invariably increase with a recession and austerity: I haven’t seen the full article. Using the same numbers from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) I got this for suicides in men aged 30-49:
To which I added a 3-year moving average, reproducing their finding:
And then tried a 5-year moving average (as in their Russian Example):
Rather than a rise in mortality recently, this moving average shows a slight fall.